← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Nov 12, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Nijhuis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 63% | 59% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.94 | value: +4% |
| Almere City win | 17% | 20% | 5.52 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax +1 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Almere City +1 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 62% | 1.46 | fair |
| Under | 33% | 38% | 2.88 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Joey Jacobs · Almere City |
| 15' | 🟨 | Thomas Robinet · Almere City |
| 15' | 🟨 | Damian van Bruggen · Almere City |
| 15' | 🟨 | Brian Brobbey · AFC Ajax |
| 67' | ⚽ | Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp · Almere City |
| 68' | ⚽ | Chuba Akpom · AFC Ajax |
| 75' | 🟨 | Stije Resink · Almere City |
| 82' | ⚽ | Benjamin Tahirović · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | Peer Koopmeiners · Almere City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Devyne Rensch · AFC Ajax |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 22 |
| 5 | On target | 13 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almere City | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| venue | Yanmar Stadion |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Thomas Robinet · Almere City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 711.00 | 42.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1502.11 | 1690.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.83 | -29.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 2.82 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.78 | 0.85 |
| solidity v1 | 0.89 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 23.48 |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.23 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.52 |