← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 11, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: E. van de Graaf
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 41% | 38% | 2.39 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 31% | 31% | 3.23 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen −0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Vitesse −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 48% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 52% | 2.09 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Million Manhoef · Vitesse |
| 25' | ⚽ | Pelle van Amersfoort · SC Heerenveen |
| 30' | 🟨 | Dominik Oroz · Vitesse |
| 50' | 🟨 | Oliver Braude · SC Heerenveen |
| 60' | 🟨 | Marco van Ginkel · Vitesse |
| 69' | 🟥 | Marco van Ginkel · Vitesse |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Anas Tahiri · SC Heerenveen |
| 85' | ⚽ | Ion Nicolaescu · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 3 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 10.00 | 498.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.32 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1506.53 | 1498.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.25 | -1.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 41.40 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.18 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | -0.28 |
| solidity v1 | -1.21 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.93 | 25.55 |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.21 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.20 |