← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 11, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Kooij
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 71% | 77% | 1.36 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 18% | 15% | 5.45 | fair |
| NEC win | 11% | 8% | 9.37 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NEC −1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| FC Twente '65 −1.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 61% | 1.66 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 39% | 2.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Sem Steijn · FC Twente '65 |
| 47' | ⚽ | Mathias Ross · NEC |
| 56' | ⚽ | Bart van Rooij · NEC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Youri Baas · NEC |
| 76' | ⚽ | Sem Steijn · FC Twente '65 |
| 84' | 🟨 | Dirk Proper · NEC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Koki Ogawa · NEC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Manfred Ugalde · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Manfred Ugalde · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mathias Ross · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 35 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 13 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.84 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| coach days | 133.00 | 1228.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1741.33 | 1484.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.08 | -1.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.60 |
| league points | 26.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 6.32 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.36 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | 0.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.91 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.13 | 26.33 |
| state index | 1.02 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.55 |