← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Fri, Nov 10, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Lindhout
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard win | 57% | 60% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.05 | fair |
| Heracles win | 19% | 15% | 5.24 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard −0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Heracles −0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 59% | 1.81 | value: +7% |
| Under | 46% | 41% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Guth · Fortuna Sittard |
| 25' | ⚽ | Milan Robberechts · Fortuna Sittard |
| 27' | 🟨 | Mario Engels · Heracles |
| 32' | ⚽ | Alen Halilović · Fortuna Sittard |
| 40' | ⚽ | Kaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard |
| 43' | 🟨 | Sem Scheperman · Heracles |
| 53' | 🟨 | Thomas Bruns · Heracles |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jannes Wieckhoff · Heracles |
| 89' | ⚽ | Mario Engels · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |
| coach days | 162.00 | 497.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.91 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1428.92 | 1443.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.70 | -20.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 5.23 | 6.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 0.20 |
| solidity v1 | -1.30 | -2.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -1.17 | -1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 2.01 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.49 |