← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Nov 5, 03:45 PM UTC · ref: S. van der Eijk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 69% | 64% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 21% | 5.60 | value: +20% |
| SC Heerenveen win | 13% | 15% | 7.02 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen −1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| AFC Ajax −1.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 69% | 65% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 31% | 35% | 3.10 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Steven Bergwijn · AFC Ajax |
| 40' | 🟨 | Pelle van Amersfoort · SC Heerenveen |
| 42' | ⚽ | Brian Brobbey · AFC Ajax |
| 45' | ⚽ | Luuk Brouwers · SC Heerenveen |
| 60' | 🟨 | Branco van den Boomen · AFC Ajax |
| 81' | 🟨 | Simon Olsson · SC Heerenveen |
| 84' | ⚽ | Chuba Akpom · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | ⚽ | Chuba Akpom · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 35.00 | 492.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1701.90 | 1493.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.17 | -21.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.65 |
| league points | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 2.86 | 7.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | -0.18 |
| solidity v1 | -0.93 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 23.25 | — |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 0.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.10 |