← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Nov 5, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Kamphuis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 61% | 55% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 29% | 4.71 | value: +38% |
| Volendam win | 17% | 16% | 5.55 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NEC −1 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Volendam −1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 54% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 46% | 2.64 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Koki Ogawa · NEC |
| 8' | 🟨 | Elayis Tavsan · NEC |
| 34' | ⚽ | Robert Mühren · Volendam |
| 38' | 🟨 | Elayis Tavsan · NEC |
| 38' | 🟥 | Elayis Tavsan · NEC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Magnus Mattsson · NEC |
| 78' | ⚽ | Milan de Haan · Volendam |
| 86' | 🟨 | Lasse Schöne · NEC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Calvin Twigt · Volendam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mio Backhaus · Volendam |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Goffertstadion |
| Magnus Mattsson · NEC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Calvin Twigt · Volendam |
| 90' | ⚽ | Koki Ogawa · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1222.00 | 157.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1476.97 | 1413.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.82 | 13.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| league points | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 14.81 | 2.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.61 |
| solidity v1 | -0.57 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.41 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 2.13 |