← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Nov 5, 11:15 AM UTC · ref: S. Gözübüyük
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 51% | 56% | 1.91 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.80 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 24% | 18% | 4.24 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 +0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| FC Utrecht +0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 55% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 45% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Oscar Fraulo · FC Utrecht |
| 30' | 🟨 | Ryan Flamingo · FC Utrecht |
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | Sem Steijn · FC Twente '65 |
| 35' | 🟨 | Mike Van der Hoorn · FC Utrecht |
| 41' | 🟨 | Marouan Azarkan · FC Utrecht |
| 45' | 🟨 | Michal Sadílek · FC Twente '65 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Manfred Ugalde · FC Twente '65 |
| 66' | 🟨 | Michal Sadílek · FC Twente '65 |
| 66' | 🟥 | Michal Sadílek · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mees Hilgers · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days | 65.00 | 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1536.85 | 1745.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.85 | 21.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.20 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 7.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 7.68 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | 0.63 |
| solidity v1 | -1.24 | 1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 24.71 | 25.27 |
| state index | -0.45 | 1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.07 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.59 |