← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 28, 04:45 PM UTC · ref: M. van den Kerkhof
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 55% | 50% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 4.15 | value: +11% |
| Heracles win | 21% | 23% | 4.66 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen −0.75 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Heracles −0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 57% | 1.71 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 43% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Osame Sahraoui · SC Heerenveen |
| 15' | 🟨 | Navajo Bakboord · Heracles |
| 21' | ⚽ | Luuk Brouwers · SC Heerenveen |
| 40' | 🟨 | Luuk Brouwers · SC Heerenveen |
| 72' | ⚽ | Luuk Brouwers · SC Heerenveen |
| 79' | 🟨 | Mats Köhlert · SC Heerenveen |
| 79' | 🟨 | Stijn Bultman · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days | 484.00 | 484.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1490.81 | 1472.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.82 | 5.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| league points | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 6.18 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | 0.25 |
| solidity v1 | -0.61 | -1.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.83 | 24.96 |
| state index | -1.05 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 2.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.63 |