← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 22, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: P. van Boekel
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 63% | 61% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.66 | value: +3% |
| Heracles win | 16% | 17% | 6.03 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 +1 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Heracles +1 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 61% | 1.66 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 39% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Daan Rots · FC Twente '65 |
| 19' | 🟨 | Thomas Bruns · Heracles |
| 21' | 🟨 | Mathias Kjølø · FC Twente '65 |
| 32' | ⚽ | Sem Steijn · FC Twente '65 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sem Steijn · FC Twente '65 |
| 59' | 🟨 | Michal Sadílek · FC Twente '65 |
| 69' | 🟨 | Carel Eiting · FC Twente '65 |
| 69' | ⚽ | Mario Engels · Heracles |
| 88' | ⚽ | Sven Sonnenberg · Heracles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emil Hansson · Heracles |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 21 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Erve Asito |
| 🟨 |
| Younes Taha · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 478.00 | 113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1456.89 | 1735.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.61 | 13.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| league points | 11.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 14.77 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 2.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | 0.70 |
| solidity v1 | -1.80 | 1.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.45 | 1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 0.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.51 |