← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 22, 10:15 AM UTC · ref: D. Higler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 50% | 45% | 1.96 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 25% | 31% | 3.80 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.93 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht +0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| AFC Ajax +0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 60% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 40% | 2.42 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | ⚽ | Ryan Flamingo · FC Utrecht |
| 48' | ⚽ | Mike Van der Hoorn · FC Utrecht |
| 52' | ⚽ | Kristian Hlynsson · AFC Ajax |
| 55' | ⚽ | Kristian Hlynsson · AFC Ajax |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Steven Bergwijn · AFC Ajax |
| 71' | ⚽ | Jens Toornstra · FC Utrecht |
| 75' | 🟨 | Borna Sosa · AFC Ajax |
| 83' | 🟨 | Benjamin Tahirović · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mats Seuntjens · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | ⚽ | Oscar Fraulo · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days | 51.00 | 21.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.97 | 3.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1523.19 | 1751.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.25 | -50.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 47.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| league points | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 15.68 | 13.91 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.38 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | 0.47 |
| solidity v1 | -1.81 | -2.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.01 | 21.78 |
| state index | -0.76 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.42 | 2.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.17 |