← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 21, 04:45 PM UTC · ref: E. van de Graaf
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Waalwijk win | 55% | 50% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.24 | fair |
| Volendam win | 22% | 26% | 4.41 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Volendam −0.75 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Waalwijk −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 56% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 44% | 2.51 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand