← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 30, 04:45 PM UTC · ref: E. van de Graaf
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 62% | 67% | 1.57 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.40 | fair |
| Almere City win | 16% | 15% | 6.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Almere City −1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 52% | 1.64 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 48% | 2.36 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Damian van Bruggen · Almere City |
| 26' | 🟨 | Loïc Mbe Soh · Almere City |
| 38' | 🟨 | Ryan Flamingo · FC Utrecht |
| 45' | 🟨 | Yann Kitala · Almere City |
| 60' | 🟨 | Hugo Novoa Ramos · FC Utrecht |
| 63' | 🟨 | Hugo Novoa Ramos · FC Utrecht |
| 63' | 🟥 | Hugo Novoa Ramos · FC Utrecht |
| 80' | ⚽ | Thomas Robinet · Almere City |
| 89' | 🟨 | Oscar Fraulo · FC Utrecht |
| 89' | ⚽ | Rajiv Van La Parra · Almere City |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Almere City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| 🟨 |
| Peer Koopmeiners · Almere City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 29.00 | 668.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.97 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1556.69 | 1459.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.67 | -29.94 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | — |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.95 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -10.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | -0.74 |
| solidity v1 | -1.06 | -2.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.04 | 25.20 |
| state index | -0.50 | -1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | — |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 1.79 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.08 |