← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 23, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Blank
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 58% | 55% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.38 | value: +12% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 19% | 19% | 5.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior −1 | 53% | 1.87 |
| SC Heerenveen −1 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 63% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 37% | 2.51 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Denzel Hall · SC Heerenveen |
| 21' | ⚽ | Couhaib Driouech · SBV Excelsior |
| 35' | 🟨 | Sven van Beek · SC Heerenveen |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nikolas Agrafiotis · SBV Excelsior |
| 56' | 🟨 | Mats Köhlert · SC Heerenveen |
| 68' | 🟨 | Siebe Horemans · SBV Excelsior |
| 81' | 🟨 | Patrik Wålemark · SC Heerenveen |
| 81' | 🟨 | Arthur Zagre · SBV Excelsior |
| 88' | ⚽ | Troy Parrott · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 449.00 | 1361.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1525.47 | 1426.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.23 | 8.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 49.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.19 | 6.27 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | -0.77 |
| solidity v1 | -2.21 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.85 | 23.45 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.36 | 1.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.15 |