← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Sep 17, 10:15 AM UTC · ref: R. Dieperink
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 40% | 38% | 2.45 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 32% | 34% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.56 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| PEC Zwolle −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 55% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 45% | 2.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Ferdy Druijf · PEC Zwolle |
| 23' | 🟨 | Jamal Amofa · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 45' | 🟨 | Willum Thor Willumsson · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 47' | 🟨 | Jamal Amofa · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 47' | 🟥 | Jamal Amofa · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 52' | ⚽ | Eliano Reijnders · PEC Zwolle |
| 70' | ⚽ | Oliver Edvardsen · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bas Kuipers · Go Ahead Eagles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 9 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | MAC³PARK Stadion |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 685.00 | 412.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.77 | 3.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1456.65 | 1489.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.24 | 19.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| league points | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 14.82 | 14.73 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | 0.20 |
| solidity v1 | 0.76 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.07 | 25.30 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.51 |