← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 16, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: S. van der Eijk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 38% | 31% | 2.56 | fair |
| Heracles win | 35% | 42% | 2.77 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.62 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Heracles +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 55% | 1.71 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 45% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Ole Romeny · FC Utrecht |
| 25' | 🟨 | Bryan Limbombe · Heracles |
| 34' | 🟨 | Can Bozdoğan · FC Utrecht |
| 45' | ⚽ | Victor Jensen · FC Utrecht |
| 58' | 🟨 | Oscar Fraulo · FC Utrecht |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jetro Willems · Heracles |
| 62' | ⚽ | Abdenego Nankishi · Heracles |
| 73' | 🟨 | Marko Vejinović · Heracles |
| 89' | 🟨 | Vasilis Barkas · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Navajo Bakboord · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Erve Asito |
| coach days | 442.00 | 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 4.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1470.50 | 1550.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.23 | -43.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| league points | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.36 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | -0.47 |
| solidity v1 | -1.04 | -1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 0.59 |