← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 16, 04:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Lindhout
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 62% | 77% | 1.55 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 21% | 12% | 4.54 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 17% | 11% | 6.06 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vitesse −1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Waalwijk −1 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 61% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 39% | 2.56 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Yassin Oukili · Waalwijk |
| 44' | 🟨 | Godfried Roemeratoe · Waalwijk |
| 60' | 🟥 | Million Manhoef · Vitesse |
| 67' | 🟨 | Yassin Oukili · Waalwijk |
| 72' | 🟨 | Amine Boutrah · Vitesse |
| 78' | 🟨 | Richonell Margaret · Waalwijk |
| 85' | 🟨 | Dario Van Den Buijs · Waalwijk |
| 89' | 🟨 | Etienne Vaessen · Waalwijk |
| 90' | ⚽ | Richonell Margaret · Waalwijk |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 380.00 | 77.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.56 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1534.04 | 1430.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.79 | -61.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.97 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.40 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 13.08 | 13.95 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 0.45 |
| solidity v1 | 0.25 | -2.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 9.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.29 | -1.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.78 | 1.77 |