← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 2, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Kooij
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 53% | 54% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.93 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 23% | 21% | 4.38 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior −0.75 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Heracles −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 57% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 43% | 2.42 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Nikolas Agrafiotis · SBV Excelsior |
| 39' | 🟨 | Lazaros Lamprou · SBV Excelsior |
| 49' | 🟨 | Arthur Zagre · SBV Excelsior |
| 54' | ⚽ | Bryan Limbombe · Heracles |
| 56' | 🟨 | Lazaros Lamprou · SBV Excelsior |
| 56' | 🟥 | Lazaros Lamprou · SBV Excelsior |
| 60' | ⚽ | Justin Hoogma · Heracles |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ian Smeulers · SBV Excelsior |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jetro Willems · Heracles |
| 85' | ⚽ | Mohamed Sankoh · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.61 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.54 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.84 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Erve Asito |
| coach days | 428.00 | 1340.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.27 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1459.32 | 1428.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.23 | 28.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.77 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 15.04 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | -0.32 |
| solidity v1 | -2.22 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.81 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.29 | 1.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.48 |