← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 2, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Nagtegaal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 39% | 48% | 2.45 | value: +17% |
| Almere City win | 33% | 30% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.64 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almere City +0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| PEC Zwolle +0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 50% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 50% | 2.29 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Davy van den Berg · PEC Zwolle |
| 23' | 🟨 | Anselmo Garcia McNulty · PEC Zwolle |
| 38' | 🟨 | Yoann Cathline · Almere City |
| 42' | 🟨 | Theo Barbet · Almere City |
| 86' | 🟨 | Anouar El Azzouzi · PEC Zwolle |
| 88' | 🟨 | Joey Jacobs · Almere City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anouar El Azzouzi · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Apostolos Vellios · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | 🟥 | Anouar El Azzouzi · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | ⚽ | Joey Jacobs · Almere City |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almere City | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | — | 2.20 |
| venue | Yanmar Stadion |
| ⚽ |
| Apostolos Vellios · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 640.00 | 670.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 3.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.56 |
| elo | 1476.13 | 1434.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | — | -11.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | — | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | — | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | — | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | — | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | — | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.50 |
| league points | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 6.18 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.78 | -0.01 |
| solidity v1 | -3.99 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.33 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.52 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.39 |