← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Aug 20, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Gözübüyük
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 68% | 81% | 1.44 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 19% | 8% | 5.21 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 13% | 11% | 7.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 −1.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| PEC Zwolle −1.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 66% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 34% | 2.65 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Michal Sadílek · FC Twente '65 |
| 26' | 🟨 | Bart van Hintum · PEC Zwolle |
| 31' | 🟨 | Lars Unnerstall · FC Twente '65 |
| 33' | ⚽ (pen) | Ferdy Druijf · PEC Zwolle |
| 35' | 🟨 | Eliano Reijnders · PEC Zwolle |
| 42' | 🟨 | Thomas Lam · PEC Zwolle |
| 52' | 🟨 | Mees Hilgers · FC Twente '65 |
| 53' | 🟨 | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
| 76' | ⚽ | Sem Steijn · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sam Kersten · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| ⚽ (og) |
| Jasper Schendelaar · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 50.00 | 657.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.82 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1736.04 | 1434.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.46 | -20.33 |
| eye test v1 | 1.01 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | — |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 2.81 | 7.73 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.49 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.43 | 26.88 |
| state index | 1.24 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |