← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 19, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: E. van de Graaf
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 65% | 59% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | 5.10 | value: +26% |
| Volendam win | 15% | 16% | 6.50 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Volendam −1.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Go Ahead Eagles −1.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 64% | 60% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 40% | 2.66 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 19 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 12 |
| 3 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand