← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 12, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Manschot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 76% | 81% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 11% | 7.31 | fair |
| Heracles win | 10% | 7% | 10.97 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax −1.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Heracles −1.75 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 74% | 1.37 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 26% | 3.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Justin Hoogma · Heracles |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mario Engels · Heracles |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jakov Medić · AFC Ajax |
| 56' | 🟨 | Anas Ouahim · Heracles |
| 58' | 🟨 | Mario Engels · Heracles |
| 61' | 🟨 | Benjamin Tahirović · AFC Ajax |
| 74' | 🟨 | Devyne Rensch · AFC Ajax |
| 74' | 🟨 | Thomas Bruns · Heracles |
| 75' | ⚽ | Mohammed Kudus · AFC Ajax |
| 85' | ⚽ | Steven Bergwijn · AFC Ajax |
| 88' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 31 | Shots | 7 |
| 13 | On target | 2 |
| 13 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| 🟨 |
| Bryan Limbombe · Heracles |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Steven Bergwijn · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 42.00 | 407.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.56 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1807.13 | 1453.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.79 | -33.84 |
| eye test v1 | 1.23 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.87 | -0.23 |
| solidity v1 | 0.22 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.09 | — |
| state index | 0.69 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | — |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | — |