← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Fri, Aug 11, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Higler
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Vitesse win | 50% | 50% | 1.96 | fair |
| Volendam win | 25% | 28% | 3.85 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.95 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Vitesse +0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Volendam +0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 60% | 1.59 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 40% | 2.48 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand