← Eredivisie 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 23, 10:15 AM UTC · ref: J. Kooij
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 67% | 63% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 24% | 4.82 | value: +18% |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 13% | 13% | 8.18 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 −1.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Sparta Rotterdam −1.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 61% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 39% | 2.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Joshua Brenet · FC Twente '65 |
| 25' | 🟨 | Shurandy Sambo · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 32' | ⚽ | Tobias Lauritsen · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 42' | ⚽ | Tobias Lauritsen · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 52' | 🟨 | Jeremy Van Mullem · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 65' | ⚽ (og) | Dirk Abels · FC Twente '65 |
| 67' | ⚽ | Václav Černý · FC Twente '65 |
| 72' | 🟨 | Tobias Lauritsen · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robin Pröpper · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Shurandy Sambo · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟥 | Shurandy Sambo |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 17 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 90' | ⚽ | Shurandy Sambo · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 1056.00 |
| 387.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1657.85 | 1605.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.74 | 39.95 |
| eye test v1 | 1.24 | 0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 67.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.80 |
| league points | 51.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.20 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 7.64 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 22.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.21 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| state index | 1.02 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |