← Eredivisie 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 16, 10:15 AM UTC · ref: J. Kamphuis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 42% | 40% | 2.28 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 30% | 27% | 3.28 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.51 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vitesse −0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| NEC −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 43% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 57% | 2.04 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
| 28' | ⚽ | Kacper Kozłowski · Vitesse |
| 63' | 🟨 | Maximilian Wittek · Vitesse |
| 68' | ⚽ (og) | Bart van Rooij · Vitesse |
| 70' | 🟨 | Pedro Marques · NEC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Mohamed Sankoh · Vitesse |
| 70' | ⚽ | Dirk Proper · NEC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Nicolas Isimat-Mirin · Vitesse |
| 76' | 🟨 | Landry Dimata · NEC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Elayis Tavsan · NEC |
| 83' | ⚽ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Goffertstadion |
| Ryan Flamingo · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1019.00 | 227.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.98 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1533.96 | 1521.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.40 | -8.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.69 |
| league points | 35.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 7.73 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.62 | 24.83 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |