← Eredivisie 2022-23 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:45 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| PSV win | 63% | 63% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 25% | 4.63 | value: +16% |
| Vitesse win | 16% | 12% | 6.32 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| PSV +1 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Vitesse +1 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 58% | 65% | 1.68 | value: +9% |
| Under | 42% | 35% | 2.31 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.