← Eredivisie 2022-23 · Sun, Mar 12, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Manschot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 70% | 66% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 21% | 5.27 | value: +10% |
| SC Heerenveen win | 11% | 14% | 8.50 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen +1.5 | 53% | 1.82 |
| AFC Ajax +1.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 67% | 1.56 | value: +5% |
| Under | 39% | 33% | 2.53 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Mohammed Kudus · AFC Ajax |
| 16' | ⚽ | Edson Álvarez · AFC Ajax |
| 19' | ⚽ | Steven Bergwijn · AFC Ajax |
| 33' | 🟨 | Osame Sahraoui · SC Heerenveen |
| 42' | ⚽ | Pelle van Amersfoort · SC Heerenveen |
| 52' | ⚽ | Kenneth Taylor · AFC Ajax |
| 79' | ⚽ | Sydney van Hooijdonk · SC Heerenveen |
| 88' | 🟨 | Pelle van Amersfoort · SC Heerenveen |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jurriën Timber · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | Steven Berghuis · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days |
| 254.00 |
| 39.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1487.28 | 1851.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.32 | -10.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.81 |
| league points | 31.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 70.00 |
| rest days | 7.73 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 11.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | 2.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.40 |
| state index | -0.48 | 1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | 1.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |