← Eredivisie 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 4, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Higler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 62% | 62% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 15% | 16% | 6.50 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen −1 | 50% | 1.95 |
| FC Twente '65 −1 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 55% | 1.90 | value: +5% |
| Under | 49% | 45% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ (og) | Mees Hilgers · SC Heerenveen |
| 29' | 🟨 | Ché Nunnely · SC Heerenveen |
| 34' | ⚽ | Robin Pröpper · FC Twente '65 |
| 48' | ⚽ | Manfred Ugalde · FC Twente '65 |
| 55' | ⚽ | Václav Černý · FC Twente '65 |
| 59' | ⚽ | Milan van Ewijk · SC Heerenveen |
| 65' | 🟨 | Antoine Colassin · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joost van Aken · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rami Kaib · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 1006.00 | 246.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1665.99 | 1491.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.22 | -40.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.66 |
| league points | 40.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 6.18 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.05 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.89 | 25.22 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |