← Eredivisie 2022-23 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Manschot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win | 39% | 45% | 2.47 | value: +11% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 32% | 30% | 3.12 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard −0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 54% | 1.91 | value: +4% |
| Over | 49% | 46% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Leon Bergsma · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
| 31' | ⚽ | Mees Hoedemakers · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
| 43' | 🟨 | Roberts Uldriķis · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
| 45' | 🟨 | Burak Yılmaz · Fortuna Sittard |
| 64' | 🟨 | George Cox · Fortuna Sittard |
| 72' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Siovas · Fortuna Sittard |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Burak Yılmaz · Fortuna Sittard |
| 83' | 🟨 | Thomas Buitink · Fortuna Sittard |
| 84' | ⚽ | Iñigo Cordoba · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Cambuur Stadion |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 120.00 | 150.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1387.43 | 1455.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.82 | 15.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 47.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | — |
| league points | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 2.92 | 3.86 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.19 | 27.47 |
| state index | -0.94 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |