← Eredivisie 2022-23 · Sun, Nov 13, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Nagtegaal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 48% | 45% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.64 | value: +4% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 25% | 26% | 4.00 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard −0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| FC Groningen −0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 54% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 46% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Iñigo Cordoba · Fortuna Sittard |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ricardo Pepi · FC Groningen |
| 49' | 🟨 | Radinio Balker · FC Groningen |
| 72' | 🟨 | Úmaro Embaló · Fortuna Sittard |
| 78' | ⚽ | Paul Gladon · Fortuna Sittard |
| 84' | ⚽ | Paul Gladon · Fortuna Sittard |
| 89' | 🟨 | Mike te Wierik · FC Groningen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tijjani Noslin · Fortuna Sittard |
| 90' | ⚽ | Florian Krüger · FC Groningen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tijjani Noslin · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Euroborg |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 135.00 | 73.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1464.15 | 1432.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.94 | -0.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 42.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.77 |
| league points | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 7.82 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |