← Eredivisie 2022-23 · Sun, Nov 13, 11:15 AM UTC · ref: M. Perez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 45% | 47% | 2.12 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 28% | 26% | 3.55 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.65 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NEC −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Waalwijk −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 53% | 1.77 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 47% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ (pen) | Dario Van Den Buijs · Waalwijk |
| 11' | 🟥 | Iliass Bel Hassani · Waalwijk |
| 36' | 🟨 | Souffian El Karouani · NEC |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Landry Dimata · NEC |
| 50' | ⚽ | Souffian El Karouani · NEC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Juriën Gaari · Waalwijk |
| 73' | ⚽ | Magnus Mattsson · NEC |
| 78' | ⚽ | Pedro Marques · NEC |
| 88' | ⚽ | Elayis Tavsan · NEC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vurnon Anita · Waalwijk |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 6 |
| 12 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Goffertstadion |
| ⚽ |
| Pedro Marques · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 865.00 | 530.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1468.68 | 1511.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.06 | 21.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.81 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.91 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.69 |
| league points | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 8.68 | 6.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |