← Eredivisie 2022-23 · Sun, Oct 23, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Makkelie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 46% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.44 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 26% | 26% | 3.88 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles −0.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| NEC −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 51% | 1.77 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 49% | 2.13 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Oussama Tannane · NEC |
| 9' | ⚽ | Isac Lidberg · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 41' | ⚽ | Bobby Adekanye · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 47' | 🟨 | Iván Márquez · NEC |
| 50' | ⚽ | Oliver Edvardsen · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 67' | 🟨 | Oussama Tannane · NEC |
| 78' | ⚽ | Magnus Mattsson · NEC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Souffian El Karouani · NEC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mats Deijl · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | ⚽ | Philippe Sandler · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Goffertstadion |
| coach days | 844.00 | 83.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 3.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1476.27 | 1421.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.20 | 37.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.40 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.77 |
| league points | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.12 | 24.43 |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |