← Eredivisie 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 22, 04:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Manschot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 73% | 79% | 1.31 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 15% | 10% | 6.50 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 12% | 10% | 8.46 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk +1.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| AFC Ajax +1.75 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 72% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Juriën Gaari · Waalwijk |
| 18' | 🟨 | Yassin Oukili · Waalwijk |
| 22' | ⚽ | Steven Berghuis · AFC Ajax |
| 40' | ⚽ | Pelle Clement · Waalwijk |
| 43' | 🟨 | Daley Blind · AFC Ajax |
| 53' | ⚽ | Steven Berghuis · AFC Ajax |
| 55' | 🟨 | Florian Grillitsch · AFC Ajax |
| 58' | 🟨 | Shawn Adewoye · Waalwijk |
| 62' | ⚽ | Brian Brobbey · AFC Ajax |
| 81' | ⚽ | Brian Brobbey · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Mandemakers Stadion |
| coach days | 508.00 | 1755.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 7.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 9.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.92 | 3.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1500.57 | 1903.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.42 | -15.95 |
| eye test v1 | 1.25 | 2.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.75 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| league points | 14.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 70.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.95 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 21.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.14 | 2.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 12.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.90 |
| state index | 0.22 | 1.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |