← Eredivisie 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 8, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Lindhout
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 84% | 85% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 7% | 10.00 | fair |
| Volendam win | 6% | 8% | 17.21 | value: +44% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax +2.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Volendam +2.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 79% | 82% | 1.21 | fair |
| Under | 21% | 18% | 4.61 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
| 39' | ⚽ | Calvin Bassey · AFC Ajax |
| 64' | ⚽ | Brian Brobbey · AFC Ajax |
| 74' | ⚽ | Lequincio Zeefuik · Volendam |
| 81' | 🟨 | Francisco Conceição · AFC Ajax |
| 84' | 🟨 | Carel Eiting · Volendam |
| 86' | ⚽ | Carel Eiting · Volendam |
| 87' | 🟨 | Davy Klaassen · AFC Ajax |
| 88' | 🟨 | Brian Plat · Volendam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brian Brobbey · AFC Ajax |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 19 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Volendam | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Kras Stadion |
| ⚽ |
| Davy Klaassen · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1195.00 | 1741.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 6.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.74 |
| elo | 1402.04 | 1899.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.12 | -14.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | 1.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.29 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.87 |
| league points | 5.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 66.80 |
| rest days | 6.18 | 6.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 2.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 11.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.08 | 2.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.14 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.30 |
| state index | -1.25 | 1.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.11 | 1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |