← Eredivisie 2022-23 · Sat, Sep 17, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: S. van der Eijk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk win | 42% | 42% | 2.32 | fair |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win | 32% | 33% | 3.07 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.69 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Waalwijk −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 57% | 1.69 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 43% | 2.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟥 | Mees Hoedemakers · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
| 17' | ⚽ | Jamie Jacobs · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
| 22' | 🟨 | Julen Lobete · Waalwijk |
| 22' | 🟨 | Mitchell Paulissen · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
| 31' | 🟨 | Jamie Jacobs · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Michiel Kramer · Waalwijk |
| 45' | 🟥 | Alex Bangura · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
| 57' | 🟨 | Julian Lelieveld · Waalwijk |
| 77' | ⚽ (og) | Marco Tol · Waalwijk |
| 82' | ⚽ | Zakaria Bakkali · Waalwijk |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 33 | Shots | 4 |
| 13 | On target | 2 |
| 16 | Corners | 0 |
| 5 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Mandemakers Stadion |
| 86' | ⚽ | Iliass Bel Hassani · Waalwijk |
| 89' | ⚽ | Michiel Kramer · Waalwijk |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 473.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1478.31 | 1411.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.39 | 11.94 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| league points | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 6.23 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |