← Eredivisie 2022-23 · Sat, Sep 10, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Dieperink
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 52% | 54% | 1.84 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 4.02 | fair |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 23% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NEC −0.5 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Fortuna Sittard −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 50% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 50% | 2.28 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 55' | 🟨 | Deroy Duarte · Fortuna Sittard |
| 71' | ⚽ | Oğuzhan Özyakup · Fortuna Sittard |
| 76' | 🟨 | Arianit Ferati · Fortuna Sittard |
| 85' | 🟨 | Doğan Erdoğan · Fortuna Sittard |
| 87' | 🟨 | Oğuzhan Özyakup · Fortuna Sittard |
| 89' | 🟨 | Doğan Erdoğan · Fortuna Sittard |
| 89' | 🟥 | Doğan Erdoğan · Fortuna Sittard |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Siovas · Fortuna Sittard |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pedro Marques · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 13 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 23 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Goffertstadion |
| coach days | 801.00 | 9.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1483.47 | 1415.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.02 | -43.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.70 | 48.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| league points | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 7.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | -1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.77 | 27.35 |
| state index | -0.12 | -1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | -1.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |