← Eredivisie 2022-23 · Fri, Sep 9, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Martens
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volendam win | 40% | 35% | 2.41 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 34% | 33% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 32% | 3.72 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Volendam −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 56% | 1.59 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 44% | 2.47 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Bobby Adekanye · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 31' | ⚽ | Carel Eiting · Volendam |
| 32' | 🟨 | Jeffrey de Lange · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 44' | 🟨 | Benaissa Benamar · Volendam |
| 44' | 🟨 | Jay Idzes · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 64' | 🟨 | Gaetano Oristanio · Volendam |
| 65' | 🟨 | Evert Linthorst · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 77' | ⚽ | Bas Kuipers · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 82' | ⚽ | Bas Kuipers · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 86' | 🟨 | Derry Murkin · Volendam |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 10 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Volendam | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Kras Stadion |
| ⚽ |
| Robert Mühren · Volendam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1166.00 | 39.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1406.96 | 1384.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.65 | -24.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 42.00 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| league points | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.75 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.96 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.25 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.07 | 24.04 |
| state index | -0.90 | -1.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.09 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |