← Eredivisie 2022-23 · Fri, Aug 12, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Bos
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Vitesse win | 52% | 55% | 1.83 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 25% | 20% | 3.96 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.39 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Vitesse +0.5 | 54% | 1.81 |
| SBV Excelsior +0.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 64% | 54% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 46% | 2.67 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 22 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Van Donge & De Roo Stadion |