← Eredivisie 2022-23 · Sat, Aug 6, 04:45 PM UTC · ref: E. van de Graaf
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win | 51% | 38% | 1.93 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 26% | 33% | 3.75 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 23% | 29% | 4.20 | value: +23% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden −0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| SBV Excelsior −0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 64% | 62% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 38% | 2.66 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 27 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand