← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 9, 04:45 PM UTC · ref: S. van der Eijk
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 66% | 63% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 5.25 | value: +9% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 14% | 16% | 7.84 | value: +27% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Utrecht −1.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Fortuna Sittard −1.25 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 54% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 46% | 2.45 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 10 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand