← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sun, Apr 3, 02:45 PM UTC · ref: P. van Boekel
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win | 39% | 38% | 2.50 | fair |
| NEC win | 35% | 40% | 2.80 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.74 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| NEC +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 58% | 55% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 45% | 2.29 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand