← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 2, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: E. van de Graaf
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 83% | 83% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 13% | 9.05 | value: +14% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 5% | 4% | 23.28 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Willem II Tilburg −2.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam −2.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 68% | 70% | 1.41 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 30% | 2.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 30 | Shots | 3 |
| 9 | On target | 0 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand