← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sun, Mar 20, 03:45 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| PSV win | 85% | 83% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 10% | 10.65 | value: +5% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 4% | 8% | 26.91 | value: +103% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fortuna Sittard −2.5 | 52% | 1.94 |
| PSV −2.5 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 75% | 65% | 1.29 | fair |
| Under | 25% | 35% | 4.00 | value: +40% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 6 |
| 15 | On target | 0 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 5 | Fouls | 3 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.