← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sun, Feb 27, 11:15 AM UTC · ref: D. Higler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 36% | 35% | 2.73 | fair |
| AZ win | 36% | 27% | 2.73 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 38% | 3.50 | value: +34% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AZ +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 48% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 52% | 2.04 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Jorrit Hendrix · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 19' | ⚽ (pen) | Jesper Karlsson · AZ |
| 26' | 🟨 | Bruno Martins Indi · AZ |
| 26' | 🟨 | Orkun Kökçü · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 28' | 🟨 | Tyrell Malacia · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Jesper Karlsson · AZ |
| 37' | 🟨 | Dani de Wit · AZ |
| 52' | ⚽ | Lutsharel Geertruida · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jordy Clasie · AZ |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jesper Karlsson · AZ |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 22 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| 🟨 |
| Owen Wijndal · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 453.00 | 241.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.69 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1753.85 | 1756.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.73 | 8.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | 1.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.83 |
| league points | 45.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 61.40 |
| rest days | 7.64 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 2.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 19.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.48 | 1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 7.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 24.42 | 25.07 |
| state index | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.12 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |