← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sun, Feb 20, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: M. van den Kerkhof
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 57% | 56% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.91 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 17% | 18% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 −0.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Go Ahead Eagles −0.75 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 51% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 49% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Luuk Brouwers · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 45' | ⚽ | Isac Lidberg · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 48' | ⚽ | Iñigo Cordoba · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 54' | 🟨 | Dimitris Limnios · FC Twente '65 |
| 64' | 🟨 | Julio Pleguezuelo · FC Twente '65 |
| 72' | ⚽ (og) | Joris Kramer · FC Twente '65 |
| 81' | 🟨 | Bas Kuipers · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 89' | ⚽ | Joshua Brenet · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ragnar Oratmangoen · Go Ahead Eagles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| coach days |
| 629.00 |
| 599.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1585.02 | 1364.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.72 | -23.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.52 |
| league points | 41.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.58 | -1.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |