← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sun, Feb 20, 11:15 AM UTC · ref: J. Manschot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 42% | 48% | 2.33 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 29% | 23% | 3.47 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| PEC Zwolle −0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 51% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 49% | 2.24 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Rico Strieder · PEC Zwolle |
| 36' | ⚽ | Laros Duarte · FC Groningen |
| 42' | 🟨 | Paulos Abraham · FC Groningen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bart van Hintum · FC Groningen |
| 65' | 🟨 | Mees de Wit · PEC Zwolle |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jørgen Strand Larsen · FC Groningen |
| 89' | 🟨 | Mustafa Saymak · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yahya Kalley · FC Groningen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marin Šverko · FC Groningen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Yuta Nakayama · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.58 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | MAC³PARK Stadion |
| coach days | 111.00 | 1360.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1438.45 | 1534.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.48 | 4.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.83 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.58 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| league points | 16.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.73 | 7.73 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.45 | 25.10 |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | -0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |