← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 19, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: P. van Boekel
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 84% | 82% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 12% | 9.14 | value: +8% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 5% | 7% | 23.00 | value: +51% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AFC Ajax +2.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Willem II Tilburg +2.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 71% | 62% | 1.35 | fair |
| Under | 29% | 38% | 3.40 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 31 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 12 |
| 8 | Fouls | 4 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |