← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sun, Jan 23, 11:15 AM UTC · ref: P. van Boekel
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 75% | 68% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 21% | 6.00 | value: +27% |
| NEC win | 8% | 10% | 12.09 | value: +25% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| NEC +1.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam +1.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 59% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 41% | 2.41 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 28 |
| 4 | On target | 11 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 6 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand