← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sat, Jan 22, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Higler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 47% | 54% | 2.05 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 25% | 20% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen −0.5 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Vitesse −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 49% | 1.92 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 51% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Jørgen Strand Larsen · FC Groningen |
| 35' | 🟥 | Loïs Openda · Vitesse |
| 39' | ⚽ | Jørgen Strand Larsen · FC Groningen |
| 67' | ⚽ | Michael De Leeuw · FC Groningen |
| 71' | ⚽ | Daniel van Kaam · FC Groningen |
| 76' | ⚽ | Dominik Oroz · Vitesse |
| 80' | 🟨 | Mike te Wierik · FC Groningen |
| 88' | 🟨 | Nikolai Baden Frederiksen · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟨 | Romano Postema · FC Groningen |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| 🟨 |
| Wessel Dammers · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 570.00 | 1331.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1665.97 | 1522.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.50 | -24.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.65 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| league points | 36.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 6.95 | 6.18 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | -1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 24.76 | 25.45 |
| state index | 0.94 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |