← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sat, Dec 18, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Gözübüyük
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 39% | 36% | 2.48 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 30% | 26% | 3.23 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 38% | 3.30 | value: +24% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen −0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Heracles −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 56% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 44% | 2.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Jørgen Strand Larsen · FC Groningen |
| 31' | ⚽ | Bilal Başaçıkoğlu · Heracles |
| 34' | ⚽ | Nikolai Laursen · Heracles |
| 44' | 🟨 | Marco Rente · Heracles |
| 77' | 🟨 | Noah Fadiga · Heracles |
| 78' | ⚽ | Romano Postema · FC Groningen |
| 85' | 🟨 | Mike te Wierik · FC Groningen |
| 87' | ⚽ | Orestis Kiomourtzoglou · Heracles |
| 89' | ⚽ (og) | Neraysho Kasanwirjo · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Erve Asito |
| coach days | 1266.00 | 1296.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1479.45 | 1545.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.20 | 18.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | 0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 65.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| league points | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 6.23 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 23.89 | 25.52 |
| state index | -0.44 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |