← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Thu, Dec 2, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: E. van de Graaf
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 90% | 93% | 1.07 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 5% | 15.00 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 3% | 2% | 36.78 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AFC Ajax −3 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Willem II Tilburg −3 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 79% | 76% | 1.20 | fair |
| Under | 21% | 24% | 4.71 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 3 |
| 9 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 2 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand